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Abstract Background This post hoc analysis assessed clinical and functional responses to tofacitinib monotherapy, tofacitinib + methotrexate (MTX), and adalimumab + MTX, in patients with rheumatoid arthritis enrolled in the ORAL Strategy study, including evaluation of patient-level data using cumulative probability plots. Methods In the 12-month, phase IIIb/IV ORAL Strategy study, patients with rheumatoid arthritis and an inadequate response to MTX were randomized to receive tofacitinib 5 mg twice daily (BID), tofacitinib 5 mg BID + MTX, or adalimumab 40 mg every other week + MTX. In this post hoc analysis, cumulative probability plots were generated for mean percent change from baseline (%∆) in the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI; clinical response) and mean change from baseline (∆) in the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI; functional response) at month 12. Median C-reactive protein (CRP) levels by time period were summarized by CDAI remission (≤ 2.8) status at months 6 and 12. Results Data for 1146 patients were analyzed. At month 12, cumulative probability plots for %∆CDAI and ∆HAQ-DI were similar across treatments in patients with greater response. At lower levels of response, patients receiving tofacitinib monotherapy did not respond as well as those receiving combination therapies. With tofacitinib + MTX, numerically higher baseline CRP levels and numerically larger post-baseline CRP reductions were seen in patients achieving CDAI remission at months 6 and 12 vs those who did not. Conclusions These results suggest that patients with a greater response did well, irrespective of which therapy they received. Patients with lesser response had better outcomes with combination therapies vs tofacitinib monotherapy, suggesting they benefitted from MTX. High pre-treatment CRP levels may be associated with better response to tofacitinib + MTX. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02187055. Registered on 08 July 2014.