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A couple of years ago, I presented a paper at the Asian Development Bank which, at that time, was generally regarded as giving an unduly gloomy picture of the outlook for the 1980s. This view is now shared more widely. I believe that the time has come to reconsider development strategies and policies and to prepare for an uncertain era. When the future is not clear, it is better to plan for low growth — even if it would only make it easier to handle surpluses than deficits in the balance of payments, and in government and other accounts…