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Abstract Rainfall variability and socioeconomic shocks pose a revenue risk for drinking water services in rural Africa. We examine the year-on-year and seasonal relationship between rainfall and remotely monitored water usage from rural piped schemes in four sub-Saharan countries to identify patterns that warn of a threat to operational sustainability. Continuous monitoring of socio-climatic interactions can reveal distributions and magnitudes of risk and guide policy action to safeguard rural water services.