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Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission
oleh: Burattini Marcelo N, Behrens Ronald H, Massad Eduardo, Coutinho Francisco AB
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | BMC 2009-12-01 |
Deskripsi
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p><b>A </b>mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.</p>