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Estimating Maximum Daily Precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland
oleh: Dariusz Młyński, Andrzej Wałęga, Andrea Petroselli, Flavia Tauro, Marta Cebulska
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2019-01-01 |
Deskripsi
The aim of this study was to determine the best probability distributions for calculating the maximum annual daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance (<i>P<sub>maxp</sub></i><sub>%</sub>). The novelty of this study lies in using the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) for assessing the fit of empirical and theoretical distributions. The input data included maximum daily precipitation records collected in the years 1971⁻2014 at 51 rainfall stations from the Upper Vistula Basin, Southern Poland. The value of <i>P<sub>maxp</sub></i><sub>%</sub> was determined based on the following probability distributions of random variables: Pearson’s type III (PIII), Weibull’s (W), log-normal, generalized extreme value (GEV), and Gumbel’s (G). Our outcomes showed a lack of significant trends in the observation series of the investigated random variables for a majority of the rainfall stations in the Upper Vistula Basin. We found that the peak-weighted root mean square error (PWRMSE) method, a commonly used metric for quality assessment of rainfall-runoff models, is useful for identifying the statistical distributions of the best fit. In fact, our findings demonstrated the consistency of this approach with the RMSE goodness-of-fit metrics. We also identified the GEV distribution as recommended for calculating the maximum daily precipitation with the specific probability of exceedance in the catchments of the Upper Vistula Basin.