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Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States
oleh: William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, David J. Lawrence, Greg McCabe, Parker Norton
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2020-06-01 |
Deskripsi
The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981–1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in air temperature (T), precipitation (<i>p</i>), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T by 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 °C or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 <i>p</i> indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in <i>p</i> in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases, with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence, in many NPS parks, R is projected to decrease even when <i>p</i> is projected to increase because of increasing T in all parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples.