One-Month-Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting Using Hybrid AI Model for Coastal Locations

oleh: Mohammed Bou-Rabee, Kaif Ahmed Lodi, Mohammad Ali, Mohd Faizan Ansari, Mohd Tariq, Shaharin Anwar Sulaiman

Format: Article
Diterbitkan: IEEE 2020-01-01

Deskripsi

Wind speed forecasts can boost the quality of wind energy generation by increasing the efficiency and enhancing the economic viability of this variable renewable resource. This work proposes a hybrid model for wind energy capacity for electrical power generation at coastal sites by utilizing wind-related variables' characteristics. The datasets of three coastal locations of Kuwait validate the proposed method. The hybrid model is a merger of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and predicts one-month-ahead wind speed for wind power density calculation. The neural network starts its performance evaluation with a variable number of hidden-layer neurons to finally identify the optimal ANN topology. Comparisons of statistical indices with both expected and observed test results indicate that the ANN-PSO based hybrid model with the low root-mean-square-error and mean-square-error values outperforms ANN-based trivial models. The prediction model developed in this work is highly accurate with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of approximately (3-6%) for all the sites.