Find in Library
Search millions of books, articles, and more
Indexed Open Access Databases
Using network theory and machine learning to predict El Niño
oleh: P. D. Nooteboom, P. D. Nooteboom, Q. Y. Feng, Q. Y. Feng, C. López, E. Hernández-García, H. A. Dijkstra, H. A. Dijkstra
| Format: | Article |
|---|---|
| Diterbitkan: | Copernicus Publications 2018-07-01 |
Deskripsi
<p>The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag time of 6 months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lag times of up to 1 year. The new method combines a classical autoregressive integrated moving average technique with a modern machine learning approach (through an artificial neural network). The attributes in such a neural network are derived from knowledge of physical processes and topological properties of climate networks, and they are tested using a Zebiak–Cane-type model and observations. For predictions up to 6 months ahead, the results of the hybrid model give a slightly better skill than the CFSv2 ensemble prediction by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Interestingly, results for a 12-month lead time prediction have a similar skill as the shorter lead time predictions.</p>