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The hot summer 2003 in Germany. Some preliminary results of a statistical time series analysis
oleh: Christian D. Schönwiese, Tim Staeger, Silke Trömel
Format: | Article |
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Diterbitkan: | Borntraeger 2004-09-01 |
Deskripsi
A statistical analysis of the summer (June, July, and August) surface air temperature, time series 1761–2003, representative of Germany, is presented. Rank statistics, where the 2003 value (3.4 K above the 1961–1990 average) appears to be by far the maximum on record, are listed as well as trend values for the whole and defined subperiods including the contributions of the individual summer months. The warming detectable since approximately 1900/1920 shows a progressive structure with highest values in recent decades. The month of August contributes much more to this warming than the other summer months. A time-dependent probability analysis of the 2003 event reveals an increasing probability, especially in recent decades. However, even under these assumptions, the 2003 event is very extreme.