Find in Library
Search millions of books, articles, and more
Indexed Open Access Databases
A Statistical Approach on Estimations of Climate Change Indices by Monthly Instead of Daily Data
oleh: Kristofer Hasel, Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek, Herbert Formayer
Format: | Article |
---|---|
Diterbitkan: | MDPI AG 2023-10-01 |
Deskripsi
Climate change indices (CCI) profoundly contribute to understanding the climate and its change. They are used to present climate change in an easy-to-understand and tangible way, thus, facilitating climate communication. Most of these indices are calculated by daily data but there are also many valuable data sets that consist solely of a monthly temporal frequency. In this paper, we present a method that enables the estimation of specific CCIs from monthly instead of daily data, allowing the expression and examination of data sets consisting solely of monthly parameters through climate change indices. Therefore, we used the ERA5 Land data supplemented by a CMIP6 ssp5-8.5 climate projection to train multiple regression models with different regression functions and selected the best fitting for every grid point. Using a climate projection as a supplement in training the regression functions accounts for climate change and empowers the method’s application in future climate periods. The method includes a simple bias adjustment (delta change). Its output is regridded to ERA5 Land’s <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><msup><mn>1</mn><mo>∘</mo></msup></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> grid, adapting it to the local environment and offering better application in areas with complex terrain using coarse data. Furthermore, the presented method and its regression coefficients can be created from any data set, allowing an even higher spatial resolution than ERA5 Land’s. While the method performs best for the temperature-related indices in warm temperate climates, it works uniformly well for the precipitation-related index maximum consecutive dry days on a global scale.